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Consider a freshman biology student reading her textbook who suddenly feels like she’s had a deep insight into the structure of DNA, easily worthy of a Nobel. For all of them to miss a brilliant insight sitting in freshman biology would be the same failure as everybody missing a on the floor of Grand Central, or all of Wall Street missing an easy opportunity to make money off of Google, or every entrepreneur missing a great market opportunity for a Thai restaurant.
So without her finding any particular flaw in her theory, she can be pretty sure that it’s wrong – or else already discovered.
All the sick people would go to them, they would make lots of money, investors would trip over each other to fund their expansion into new markets, and eventually they would take over health care and be super rich.
So “health care is inefficient and overpriced” seems like the same kind of statement as “a bill has been on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week and nobody has picked it up.” Therefore, health care isn’t inefficient or overpriced.
So for Google to remain underpriced when your uncle sees it, you have to assume everyone at every Wall Street hedge fund has just failed to notice this tremendous money-making opportunity – the same sort of implausible failure as a staying on the floor of Grand Central for a week.For example: Eliezer’s wife Brienne had Seasonal Affective Disorder.The consensus treatment for SAD is “light boxes”, very bright lamps that mimic sunshine and make winter feel more like summer.Entrepreneurs are pretty smart, so they would notice this money-making opportunity, raise some funds from equally-observant venture capitalists, make a better mass transit system, and get really rich off of all the tickets. So “US cities don’t have good mass transit” seems like the same kind of statement as “a bill has been on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week and nobody has picked it up.” Therefore, US cities have good mass transit, or at least the best mass transit that’s economically viable right now.
This proof of God’s omnibenevolence is followed by Eliezer’s observations that the world seems full of evil.It’s an analysis of the efficient market hypothesis and how it relates to the idea of low-hanging fruit.It’s a self-conscious defense of the author’s own arrogance. If the world was created by the Invisible Hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil?With the certainty of physical law, we can know that city will have a Thai restaurant.